Former Lagos Commissioner Backs Atiku’s Economic Growth Projections, Says $900bn GDP, $5,000 Per Capita Income Achievable

•Ex-VP 'll collaborate with states to develop mining sector, says PDP

Goddy Egene

An economist and former Lagos State Commissioner for Finance, Dr. Mustapha Abiodun Akinkunmi has said the $900 billion gross domestic product (GDP) growth projected by former vice president and presidential candidate of the  Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, was achievable.

This was just as the PDP yesterday said its presidential candidate would collaborate with states of the federation in revamping Nigeria's mining sector.

Akinkunmi, who is a non-executive director of Moody's Group/GCR Credit Rating Company, said having gone through the economic blue print of Abubakar and the economic strategy he plans to adopt and given his past experience of the PDP presidential candidate, Nigeria's economy could record such growth.

Akinkunmi stated these during an interview on Global Business Report on ARISE News Channel, a sister company of THISDAY Newspapers in Lagos.

Atiku had said if voted as the next president of Nigeria, he would grow the GDP from $400 billion to $900 billion, while per capita income would grow from $2,000 to $5,000.

However, Akinkunmi  who had  served as principal consultant to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), where he developed leading indicators of economic recovery and research on sustainable and pro-growth exchange rate policy among other things, expressed confident in the ability of Atiku to deliver on his promises and projections.

He said: "Atiku Abubakar plans to work with the private sector to grow the economy. A few things he is going to do: He's going to raise the GDP to $900 billion. Per capita income to rise to $5,000 from $2,000. How this is going to happen is when the government moves away from infrastructure-focused projects and gets the private sector involved. His government is going to be private-sector driven, according to him. The private sector would take leadership in his government."

 Akinkunmi said although the growth would not immediate but is very feasible, saying what happened in 1999  when Abubakar was elected vice president  and supervised  some economic reforms, can be repeated.

"I will take you back to 1999, we have the good news of MTN of N2 trillion. MTN came after 1999, we did a lot of reforms and we are seeing the benefits of those reforms. After 1999, many of us returned, I came in from New York City because of the growth within a couple of years. Look at what President Joe Biden did with the United States in the last two years. He has created 12 million jobs, you have more jobs in the US than anywhere else in the world today. So, it's about the commitment. Atiku Abubakar, when he led the economic team in 1999, there was double-digit growth, so what are we talking about? The numbers are there, numbers don't lie.  However, if you vote in someone that shouldn't be there, but I trust the Nigerian electorate, they will do the right thing," he said.

Asked if the  current high level of Nigeria's indebtedness would not affect the performance of the incoming administration, Akinkunmi who had done extensive software development on quantitative analysis of capital markets, revenue and payment gateway, predictive analytics, data science and credit risk management, explained that  he had looked  at all three  leading candidates and saw that Abubakar had passed through this route before.

"Abubakar has spoken about it, and written about it that work is going to stop or reduce the debt accumulation. He is going to look at the debt strategy, understand it and he is going to get the private sector. He keeps hammering on the private sector.

'Let's look at the key infrastructure. So what we are dealing with here, we are dealing with a major issue. We are in trouble. We need to do the right thing. We need to get the right guy. We need to get the guy that got the plan to restore Nigeria. The man has done it before. The others have plans but I have not seen how they will get it done," the economist said.

Speaking on the $10 billion stimulus fund for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) proposed by Atiku, he said it would go a long way to boost that sector that was seen as the engine for any economic growth.

According to him, apart from the $10 billion fund, Atiku also  plans harmonise all other SMEs windows if voted into power.

"Currently, the CBN is doing their own, the Bank of Industries is doing their own, Bank of Agriculture is doing its own, his Excellency plans to harmonise all that.  He is going to look at all government enterprises that are not making enough revenue to sustain themselves and find a way to hand that over to the private sector. So the idea is that he is going to fine tune strong fiscal discipline," he said.

Meanwhile, the PDP has said its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, would collaborate with states of the federation in revamping Nigeria's mining sector.

The spokesman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, Mr. Charles Aniagwu, said Atiku and his running mate, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, are clear that industrialisation and exploitation of mineral resources would be given priority in their administration.

Speaking on "Focus Nigeria" on AIT Policy Dialogue with the theme: "Ending Illegal Mining in Nigeria," Aniagwu added that the PDP administration would collaborate with stakeholders in the mining industry particularly the states to make the sector work for the good of the country.

According to him, it would not augur well for the federal government to seat down in Abuja and grant licences through the Ministry of Solid Minerals to an individual without determining the quantity of the particular mineral resource in the place.

"In doing so, Atiku-Okowa recognised the provision of the Minerals Mining Act of 2007 particularly Chapter 1, Part 1 which states very clearly that ownership of solid minerals is vested in the Federal Government and this means the Federal Government is saddled with a whole lot of responsibilities including the implementation of the Act.

"But Atiku says that in doing that he is going to collaborate with states just as he has also said that he will devolve powers so that in granting licences to determine who should be involved in mining activities and how such products will be marketed, that the states should be carried along.

"It is not enough to collect royalties for licences without determining the quantity of deposits in that environment, Atiku said he would not operate like that because it will not give value to the federation.

"Atiku believes that just the same way petroleum products is giving us resources and helping us run our economy, the same way solid minerals should be able to play a very critical role and for that to happen, key stakeholders must be critically involved to perform their roles to ensure the success of the sector.

"When the states are involved, it will be easier to properly police the environment and deal with the issues of insecurity surrounding mining activities in the country.

"When the states are involved in registering or licencing those involved in mining activities it will be a win-win situation for the person mining, the state where the resources is deposited and the federal government that is vested with the ownership of the product," he said.

Aniagwu who is also Commissioner for Information in Delta, said before the discovery of oil, Enugu used to be called the "Coal City", Jos "Tin City" and Lokoja had a whole lot of iron deposits.

He said for the country to generate enough revenue from the sector, there must be a correct data of the solid minerals in the country.

"Atiku-Okowa will implement the laws, bring in reforms such that at the end of the day the Federation is totally involved and not leaving it in the hands of the artisanal miners alone.

"Beyond the mining, Atiku will also bring industrialisation to the sector to ensure the country benefits from the entire solid minerals value-chain.

"All of these would be taken care of in the Atiku-Okowa Presidency by industrialising the sector and improve the nation's earnings from the solid minerals industry."

He said that Atiku-Okowa have the political will to implement the 2007 Mining Act and so review the provisons of the Act to accommodate changing realities adding that the law would catch up with anyone not licenced and proceeded to mine what belongs to the federal government.

"Anybody who does not have a licence and who is not entitled to go into mining automatically will be treated as a thief," he stated.

The PDP presidential campaign spokesman further said there would be a proper policing of what people are mining, what they are selling and the value the Federation is going to get so that the miner as a businessman is not going to operate at a loss, the Federation that owns the mineral will not also operate at a loss.

"We have in our policy document clearly stated how we are going to revitalise the solid minerals sector and get it to begin to play very critical role in contributing to the nation's GDP.

"A situation where government depends only on mining licences and the little money they get from the sector is not good enough for a country seeking additional revenue to fund its infrastructural deficits.

"We are going to be much more interested in the quantity of the deposits and the ability of such companies to be able to mine and exploit the solid minerals and we are also going to be involved in understanding the value-chain in addition to industrialising the sector," Aniagwu added.